Mortgage Blog

It’s been said that no news is good news. But last week, the Jobs Report brought some good news for the labor market. 

The headline Jobs Report showed 243,000 jobs created, which was much better than expected. Meanwhile, a whopping 257,000 private jobs were created, also much higher than expected. Upward revisions to November and December added another 60,000 jobs to what was previously reported for those months. And adding to the euphoria was a 0.2% decline in the Unemployment Rate, bringing it to 8.3%…the lowest since February 2009.

Despite all this good news, the report did show a pretty sharp decline in the labor participation rate from 64% to 63.7%. We really need to have more people “participating,” or working to help pay down our debt. Understandably, the demographics of baby boomers retiring does account for some of the decline. But is it the entire 0.3%? And the U-6 Unemployment Rate (which counts all persons marginally attached to the labor force, including those who are employed part-time but would prefer full-time) remains at a lofty 15.1%, with that figure dropping just 0.1% for the month.

And there was other good news to note last week as well: The Commerce Department reported that Personal Incomes rose in December by 0.5%, above expectations and well above the 0.1% reported in November. This marked the largest increase in nine months!

So what does all of this mean for the housing market and home loan rates?

While Bonds and home loan rates did worsen on the good Jobs Report news (remember good economic news often causes money to flow out of Bonds and into Stocks, as investor try to take advantage of gains), home loan rates remain near historic best levels. In addition, the problems in Europe remain…and as uncertainty reemerges, US Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied) will benefit.

The takeaway from all of last week’s news is that the pace of improvement in the labor market is choppy and muddled at best. But the trend is improving over time, and this is welcome news for the struggling housing market because as people feel more secure in their jobs, they are more willing to consider making major purchases like a home.

The bottom line is that now is a great time to purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all.

The National Association of Realtors® surveys homebuyers and sellers each year to uncover housing trends and monitor changes taking place in the industry. This year’s report highlights a number of trends that haven’t been seen in years. Here are just 11 highlights from the 2011 report.

1. In 2011, 37% of homebuyers were first-time buyers – which was down from 50% in 2010.

2. Last year, 88% of homebuyers used the Internet to search for a home. That number was down slightly from a high of 90% in 2009.

3. The typical homebuyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 12 homes.

4. The number of buyers who purchased their home through a real estate agent or broker climbed to 89% – a share that has steadily increased from 69% in 2001.

5. Nearly 1 out of 4 buyers said the application and approval process was “somewhat more difficult” than expected…and 16% reported it was “much more difficult” than expected.

6. About half of home sellers traded up to a larger and more expensive home…and 60% traded up to a new home.

7. The top 3 factors influencing neighborhood choice were: the quality of the neighborhood, the convenience to job, and the overall affordability of homes.

8. The typical seller lived in their home for 9 years. That number has increased from 6 years in 2007.

9. Although 61% of sellers said they reduced their asking price at least once, the average home sold for 95% of the listing price.

10. Only 10% of sellers sold their homes without the assistance of a real estate agent. Of those people, 40% knew the buyer prior to the sale.

11. The typical “for sale by owner” home sold for $150,000 compared to $215,000 for the average agent-assisted home sale.

All Contents ©2012 The National Association of Realtors®.

On the one hand, the housing market still remains uncertain. For instance:

• Foreclosures will still be a concern in 2012 as a fresh wave will be hitting the market…and that will prevent a broad-based pricing recovery in housing. However, the good news is that the delinquency rates have declined and should continue to do so.
• While some parts of the country are seeing signs of improvement in housing, others continue to struggle. Overall, home prices will likely decline modestly in the first half of 2012 and then recover in the second half of the year.
• Rentals and investment properties will continue to be popular in 2012 as more people continue to rent.

On the other hand, we are closer to the bottom in housing and with historically low rates in 2012, it will be another incredible purchase opportunity for homebuyers.

In fact, it looks like home loan rates could move a leg lower in the first part of 2012, as rumors continue to swirl around the possibility of the Fed stepping in with a third round of Quantitative Easing (or QE3), and this could lead to the lowest rates ever. HOWEVER…like all windows of opportunity, this one may be short as well. History has shown that Bonds move higher in anticipation of Quantitative Easing, but then selloff once the official announcement is made. Think about the old investing adage: “Buy on the rumor, and sell on the news.” So the best home loan rates may be seen leading up to any actual announcement.

If the Fed doesn’t do QE3, rates will still be very attractive in the first part of year, before moving a bit higher in the second half of 2012 as the economy continues to pick up. Overall, the early part of 2012 looks to be a great environment for interest rate, which means lots of opportunity for homebuyers.

Regardless of what happens at the Federal level, I’ll be here ready to help you get the best home loan for your unique goals and situation. I’m always happy to help out in any way I can.

“Happy days are here again.” Milton Ager and Jack Yellen. And while it seems that consumers are certainly feeling happier, not everything that happened last week was cause for song.

There was good news last Friday, as the first look at Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 74.0, which is the highest level since May 2011. However, there was also news last week that the holiday shopping season may not have been as robust as previously thought.

Retail Sales in December rose by a meager 0.1% from 0.4% in November, and when stripping out autos, sales actually fell 0.2%. Why did this happen? It seems that steep holiday discounting held down the value of goods sold, so sales were big, but only because of the heavy discounting.

The news out of Europe last week also wasn’t too happy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde met to discuss and finalize the debt restructuring deal for Greece. Back in October, a deal called for Bondholders to “accept” a 50% haircut on the face value of the Greek debt – but as creditors and authorities have started to forge a final deal, the actual haircut back to investors is looking quite likely to be larger than 50%. This is simply because worsening financial conditions in the Greek economy make paying the debt back with “just” a 50% haircut highly unlikely…maybe impossible. What’s more, the next reasonable question to consider is will Ireland, Portugal and even Italy ask for a similar haircut or deal on what may be unsustainable debt in their countries?

The happy news is that these problems are finally being addressed to make things better in the future. And in the short term, the uncertainty should keep money flowing into the relative safe haven of the US Dollar and US Bonds – including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied. In addition, Mortgage Bonds continue to be supported by the Fed’s purchases, which are also helping to keep home loan rates at record low levels.

All of this means that now continues to remain a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all.

One of the best ways to look at a snapshot of the overall US economy is to look at Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the total production and consumption of goods and services in the US to shed light on the economy’s behavior. Recently, we saw the second of three looks at the US’s Third Quarter GDP.

The bad news was that the second reading was actually lowered to 2%, compared to the first reading of 2.5%. While that may not sound like much of a difference, it’s a sizeable drop in GDP. And when we factor that drop into the year-over-year reading, GDP is an anemic 1.5%.

The good news is that we’re not in a recession and the Third Quarter reading is still up from the First Quarter. But this very weak growth reading is not nearly enough to put a dent in the Unemployment Rate. Additionally, any external shock to the economy – for example, a deepening Euro crisis – could apply enough pressure to hit the US economy rather hard. This is very much like a person whose immune system is weak, which makes them extra susceptible to catching an illness that they might normally be able to fight off.

That said, the US economy is still much healthier than a lot of European countries, which are more like the walking dead…meandering slowly and living on borrowed time as ever growing debt literally buries them. Right now, Germany holds all the cards – and they want to wait and see if the troubled Euro member countries can truly invoke austerity and grow their way out of deficit.

The problem is that the market may not be that patient. Yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal have risen sharply in recent weeks, and the only thing keeping them from going higher still is that the European Central Bank has been buying Bonds from those countries. So the clock is ticking in Europe. In the very near future either the European Central Bank will have to print a ton of money to continue buying those Bonds…or some of these southern European countries may leave the Euro. As this story plays out, the US Dollar and US Bonds – and home loan rates overall – continue to benefit from a safe haven trade.